Poster 2: Physical Therapy Workforce in the US: Predicting Nationwide Shortages

Article Outline

• Disclosures
• Objective
• Design
• Setting
• Results
• Conclusions
• Copyright

Keywords: Physical Therapy, Workforce Shortage

Back to Article Outline

Disclosures 

V. W. Lin, None.

Back to Article Outline

Objective 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that employment of physical therapists (PTs) is expected to grow 27% from 2006 to 2016. This projected growth suggests the demand for PT services will increase; but will the supply of PTs keep pace with demand? In 1997, the American Physical Therapy Association (APTA) commissioned Vector Research Inc. to examine PT supply and demand. The Vector study projected a 20-30% surplus of PTs by the year 2005. However, the 2005 APTA Employment Survey revealed the unemployment rate for PTs was 0.2%, suggesting the predicted surplus did not occur. To our knowledge, no other studies have examined PT supply and demand.

Back to Article Outline

Design 

We developed forecast models for PT jobs based on methodology previously published for nursing. In addition, a grading methodology previously published was utilized as a means of evaluating individual state PT shortage ratios from 2006 to 2030. The metric used for grading was the PT shortage ratio defined as the difference between demand and supply of PT jobs per 1,000,000 population. States were aggregated into 4 geographic regions defined by the BLS.

Back to Article Outline

Setting 

Health service research using data from The Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government sources.

Back to Article Outline

Results 

Our results demonstrated that, based on current trends, demand for PT services will outpace the supply of PTs within the US. Shortages are expected to increase for all 50 states through 2030. States with the greatest shortages include California, Nevada and Georgia. States with the smallest shortages are Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont. Using the BLS geographic regions, the northeast is projected to have the smallest shortages while the south and west are projected to have the largest.

Back to Article Outline

Conclusions 

These data serve to provide the PT profession, policy makers and stakeholders a means of assessing current and future PT needs. Discussion of the issues surrounding PT shortages and ongoing assessment of supply and demand must ensue in order to mitigate projected shortages.